A model of health
Compared with climate modelling, health impact modelling is in its infancy
One challenge facing health impact modelling is that data are usually only available at a regional level and are not necessarily applicable beyond that area. Or the regional picture may just be an average of many different environments, each with its own patterns of disease ecology and varying biological interactions between pathogens and hosts.
Nevertheless, some attempts have been made to produce local ‘health forecasts’. For example, a 2011 study predicted that overall Europe would see a rise of between 10 and 14 per cent in ozone-related deaths over a 60-year period.