Using the past to predict the future
How do we know what is going to happen next to the Earth – and to humans?
One crucial feature of science is that it makes evidence-based predictions.
This evidence comes from several sources. Data can be collected to characterise the current state of the planet, and recordings over time can reveal short-term trends. Controlled experiments can tell us how different factors interact with one another (how chemicals react, how organisms respond, etc.).
In addition, various techniques can be used to reveal what Earth was like in the past, and how and why it has changed. Then, principally through the use of computer models, we can simulate what may happen next.
Models have been used to map out possible futures for the planet. They can also be used to assess how these possible futures may affect human health.
Lead image:Rapid climate change may significantly increase the risk of social unrest. The French Revolution of 1789 followed several years of harsh weather and food shortages, possibly linked to the eruption of the Laki volcanic system in Iceland in 1784.
Wellcome Library, London CC BY
References
Further reading
Related resources
Reconstructing the past
How do we know what the Earth’s climate was like in the past?
Imagining the future
We can measure things now, and infer what the past was like, but how do we predict what will happen next?
How can modelling be applied to human health?
The challenge is to understand how the key factors affecting health will be altered by climate change